Garry Atchison, Professional Meteorologist with 30 years experience forecasting for Alberta, will provide 2012 weather 'forecast optimization', specific to the Birkie trails.   Feedback to atchgs@shaw.ca

   My aim is to add value, context, and some specifics, to the publicly available regional forecasts that are linked to below.  My comments will be tweaked daily now, oftener if something newsworthy appears on the horizon.

BIRKIE-LAND WEATHER -2012 #23

From 4 PM Saturday 4 Feb 2012

 STILL LOOKING GOOD!

    Tracks were newly renovated Tuesday have just been groomed and trackset and conditions are wonderful.. very fast and not a bit icy.  Still surprised how much more snow there is in Birkie land compared to appearances on city streets.  Abit of weather trivia.. we were lucky that temperatures got to only plus 4 or so Friday and Saturday, as it was closer to plus 10C within 500 m above ground.

  Newest model runs support forecast of additional cloud and thus the potential for a dusting of snow on Birkie day.

 Monday will be the coldest day ahead; with a noticeable SE breeze giving a chilling effect near minus 13C, whilst actual temperatures in the majority sheltered trails are in  minus single digits.  Temperatures a degree or two cooler than previously expected thru the next 6 days; actually staying below freezing Monday and Tuesday..   .

   So 9 AM Birkie starts should be within 4 degrees of minus 7C,  +18F; skiers til 1 PM having waxable fast conditions; finishers after 3 pm may be dealing with softening snow at plus 3C. Very little wind.  Latest models suggest more cloud on Birkie day and that will help stabilize snow conditions.  Remember that last minute trail grooming will influence the snow/wax equation.

  Temperatures in forecasts are standard thermometer readings of air temperatures. Snow temperatures will lag these. City airport temperatures and forecasts, from media sources,  are generally a couple degrees warmer than in Birkie land.

The links below to Environment Canada forecasts and Weather Channel forecasts, are updated as often as three times daily and should be as good as any for first 36 hours of the forecast period.  Forecasts are regional rather than 'point' in any case.